I will say it's likely that there is a third factor affecting the relationship between people's mindset and the events, in other words, the two factors stated in the question are indirectly correlated. Take China as an example. A few hours ago, I just watched a video of the social discussion about 郎咸平's view in the mid-2000s. According to polls from various Internet platforms, most people agreed with Lang's view on stopping the reform of state-owned enterprises. However, the ruling class continued the reform and assured the public they would supervise the equity transaction of state-owned enterprises in the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The event shows that only the government and the giant interest group behind it can cause an event in China. By compromising their minor interest, they act like they are listening to the public. Consequently, in my opinion, the will of the government and giant interest groups is the third factor affecting both the public's mindset and the events.